影子銀行、政府審計與金融安全-來自國內金融機構的經驗數據(碩士)

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影子銀行、政府審計與金融安全-來自國內金融機構的經驗數據(碩士)(論文32000字)
Shadowing banking, government audit and financial security
-Based on empirical data of domestic financial institutions
摘  要
2007-2009年,全球經濟金融體系遭受次貸危機的重創,作為罪魁禍首的“影子銀行”這一新興的金融術語一時成為金融研究領域的新焦點。危機發生后,世界主要經濟體和國際貨幣基金組織、巴塞爾銀行委員會、國際清算銀行和金融穩定理事會等已著手開展一系列的金融監管改革,在下一次危機到來之前做好準備,降低危機對實體經濟的損害程度。
反觀國內,2011年以來,受次貸危機的影響,國內銀行信貸政策收緊,影子銀行業務開始受到青睞,溫州、鄂爾多斯等地一直有比較活躍的民間借貸地區,卻開始出現“跑路”、“倒閉”的場景,中融國際信托的拍賣抵押資產多數流拍,華夏銀行理財產品成為“龐氏騙局”無法兌現,中國的影子銀行體系已經不再平靜,嚴重影響了中國的金融穩定與安全。而究竟我國影子銀行體系對宏觀經濟會產生怎樣的影響,其風險狀況如何,如何規避其系統風險?這些都已經成為當前國內金融運行中一個亟待解決的問題。
2007年12月,劉家義審計長首次提出國家審計是國家經濟運行的“免疫系統”,而政府審計作為國家治理與經濟治理的“免疫體系”,天然具備維護金融安全的作用。為此,本文基于影子銀行風險影響金融穩定的作用機理,探索政府金融審計功能的發揮對影子銀行引發的金融安全穩定的影響。具體行文安排如下:
第一部分:引言。介紹本文的研究背景及研究意義、研究思路和方法以及可能的創新。
第二部分:文獻綜述。本章節對影子銀行、政府審計、系統性風險三方面的文獻進行梳理。首先介紹了影子銀行的概念、規模的估計以及對金融穩定的影響,其次分析了影響政府審計的因素、政府審計的功能定位以及對影子銀行實施政府金融審計的必要性,而后對比了衡量金融系統性風險的研究方法,最后闡釋了政府金融審計維護金融安全的作用機制并進行文獻評述,為后續理論分析和研究設計奠定基礎。
第三部分:理論分析。首先介紹了國外對影子銀行概念的界定以及國內影子銀行的概念及分類,并結合國內影子銀行的現狀分析了我國影子銀行的特征;其次分析了國內影子銀行存在的風險隱患,包括自身的風險以及加大金融體系的系統性風險;最后對比政府金融監管、內部審計及社會審計,討論了政府金融審計在防范金融系統性風險方面的優勢。
第四部分:研究設計。結合上述理論分析,理順國內影子銀行對金融體系系統性風險的正向刺激,以及政府金融審計為實現防范系統性風險的作用機理,提出了本文研究假設;設置研究變量并構建研究模型,有關影子銀行、政府審計、系統性風險等變量均來自CSMAR(國泰安數據庫)數據庫,采用statal2版進行相關數據處理。
第五部分:實證研究。先通過描述性統計和相關分析大致介紹研究對象的基本情況,確保回歸模型中不存在多重共線性,然后對研究設計中提出的假設進行回歸結果分析。
第六部分:研究結論、建議與展望。根據第五部分的實證分析得出研究結論,并據此提出建議和未來的研究方向。
根據以上行文邏輯和理論推演,結合實證研究后得出如下結論:第一,以2003-2011年樣本數據進行分析,發現影子銀行通過杠桿效應加大系統性風險;第二發現政府審計功能發揮越好,越能緩沖影子銀行對金融穩定的影響。

關鍵詞:影子銀行 政府金融審計 系統性風險

Abstract
From 2007-2009, the global financial system was hammered by the subprime crisis. As the culprit, the emerging financial term of "shadow banking" became a new focus in financial research. After the crisis, the world's major economies and IMF, the Basel committee, BIS and FSB has embarked on a series of financial regulatory reform, and got ready before the arrival of the next crisis, to reduce the damage of the crisis on the real economy.
In China, since 2011, under the influence of subprime crisis, domestic banks tightening credit, shadow banking business began to be favored. But in the active private lending areas, such as Wenzhou, Ordos and the other places, bosses started to "run" and factories "close down". Most of the auctioned mortgage assets of ZRGG being abortive auction, financial products of HXB becoming a "Ponzi scheme", unable to meet, shadow banking system of China was no longer calm, affecting the financial stability and security of China seriously. Because of this, questions may be brought out: How does the shadow banking system in China affect the macro economy, what about the risk condition, and how to avoid the systemic risk? These have become an urgent problem in the current domestic financial operation.
In December 2007, the auditor-general Liu Jiayi put forward the national audit is the "immune system" of national economic operation for the first time. As the "immune system" of national management and economic management, the government audit plays a natural role in maintaining financial safety. For this reason, based on the effect of shadow banking’s risk on financial stability, this paper explores the influence of government financial audit on financial security and stability caused by shadow banking. This paper is divided into following six parts:
Part I: Introduction. Which elaborates the research background and research significance, research ideas and methods, and possible innovations.
Part II: Literature review. This part reviews the literature of the shadow banking, government audit, systemic risk. Firstly, this part introduces the concept of shadow banking, the estimation of size and the impact on the financial stability. Secondly, this part analyzes the factors that affect the government auditing, function orientation of government audit and the necessity of the implementation on shadow banks of the government financial audit. Lastly, this part introduced the methods of measuring systemic risk, and illustrates the mechanism of the government financial audit on maintaining financial security, laying the foundation for subsequent theoretical analysis and the research design.
Part III: Theoretical analysis. At first, this section introduces the definition of shadow banking abroad and the concept and classification of shadow banking in China, and analyzes the characteristics of shadow banking by combining the current situation of the domestic shadow banking. Then this section introduces the risks of shadow banking, including its own risks and the systemic risks of the financial system. Finally, compared with the government financial regulation, internal audit and social audit, this section discusses the advantages of government financial audit on preventing financial risks.
Part IV: Research design. First of all, based on the above theoretical analysis, this part straightens out the positive stimulus that shadow banking brings on systemic risk of financial system and the mechanism how government financial audit prevents systemic risk, and puts forward the research hypothesis; And then, the part sets the research variables and build the model. All data of the shadow Banks, government audit and systemic risk variables is from CSMAR database, using statal2 version to process relevant data.
Part V: Empirical research. Through descriptive statistics and correlation analysis, this part introduces the basic situation of the research object roughly, making sure that there is no multicollinearity in the regression model. And then this part does regression analysis of the hypotheses put forward in the research design.
Part VI: Research conclusion, suggestion and prospect. By summarizing the empirical research, this part is done with research conclusions, research limitations, the improvement direction of follow-up researches and suggestions for the development of shadow banking.

Key Words: Shadow banking, Government financial audit, Systematic risk

目  錄
摘  要    1
Abstract    1
目  錄    1
1.緒論    1
1.1研究背景和研究意義    1
1.1.1研究背景    1
1.1.2研究目的和意義    3
1.2研究思路與方法    4
1.2.1研究思路與結構    4
1.2.2本文的研究方法    6
1.3本文研究的難點、創新和不足    6
2.文獻綜述    7
2.1有關影子銀行方面的研究    7
2.1.1影子銀行概念厘定    7
2.1.2影子銀行產生的原因    8
2.1.3影子銀行規模的估計    8
2.1.4.影子銀行對金融穩定的影響    8
2.2有關政府審計方面的研究    9
2.2.1影響政府審計的因素    9
2.2.2政府審計功能定位    10
2.2.3影子銀行與政府金融審計    10
2.3有關金融系統性風險方面的研究    11
2.4有關政府金融審計維護金融安全的實現機制的研究    12
2.5文獻評述    13
3.理論分析    15
3.1 影子銀行概述    15
3.1.1國內外影子銀行的定義    15
3.1.2影子銀行成因分析    17
3.1.3國內影子銀行的分類及現狀    18
3.1.4影子銀行的特征    22
3.2影子銀行的風險隱患    24
3.2.1影子銀行自身的風險    24
3.2.2影子銀行加大金融體系的系統性風險    26
3.3政府金融審計防范金融風險優勢分析    27
3.3.1金融審計防范金融風險的作用    27
3.3.2政府金融審計在國家金融監督體系中的地位    28
3.3.3政府金融審計防范金融風險的優勢    30
3.4本章小結    34
4.研究設計    35
4.1研究假設    35
4.1.1影子銀行影響金融穩定的內在機理    35
4.1.2.政府金融審計在影子銀行對金融穩定影響下的作用    36
4.2數據來源    37
4.3變量設計    37
4.3.1因變量設計    37
4.3.2自變量設計    37
4.3.3控制變量設計    38
4.4模型構建    38
5.實證研究    41
5.1描述性統計與分析    41
5.2相關性分析    42
5.3穩健性分析    42
5.4回歸結果分析    43
5.4.1假設1回歸分析    43
5.4.2假設2回歸分析    43
6.結論與啟示    45
6.1研究結論    45
6.2相關建議    45
6.2.1強化對影子銀行機構的資本與杠桿率監管。    45
6.2.2健全影子銀行機構的自律機制。    46
6.2.3完善信息披露制度。    46
6.2.4合理構建政府金融審計機制。    47
6.2.5構建影子銀行非系統性風險應急反應機制。    47
6.3研究局限與展望    48
6.3.1研究的局限性    48
6.3.2未來研究展望    48
參考文獻    49

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